6/20/2023 0 Comments One hundred days of resistanceMany of the Azov Battalion prisoners of war, deemed to be fascists by Moscow, will be put on trial as war criminals rather than exchanged in prisoner swaps. Russia then enjoyed the propaganda victory and morale booster of the mass surrender. Keeping them there far too long may have been an inspiring act of defiance by Kyiv, but it had no impact on the course of the war as most Russian soldiers were able to leave Mariupol for other fronts long before the siege ended. We saw the cost of this strategy when 2,000 to 3,000 Ukrainian soldiers, mainly in the Azov Battalion, were holed up in the Azovstal steel works in Mariupol before being forced to surrender. These retreats have proved controversial in Ukraine after Zelensky promoted the rallying cry of heroic resistance, not ceding an inch of Ukrainian territory. President Zelensky also ordered his forces to retreat from exposed positions around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk before being encircled and destroyed by the advancing Russians. Some of these soldiers may be able to return to the front line quickly, but many will not and they will require long-term medical care, yet another strain on the Ukrainian economy and society. Judging by the ratios of modern warfare, 100 military deaths a day normally means another 400 or so wounded. President Zelensky acknowledged the daily death toll of 100 Ukrainian soldiers, and these are coming from the ranks of the battle– hardened Ukrainian units that have defended Luhansk and Donetsk against Russian armed separatists since 2014. Over the course of May, the reality check arrived with the Russian army on the advance in the Donbas and inflicting significant losses and damage on Ukrainian forces. This rosy narrative held for the first two months of the war, through March and April. Yet, like all black and white narratives, it was too facile and simplistic, and bound to suffer a major reality check sooner rather than later. As international sanctions piled up against the Putin regime and the Russian economy, and NATO and the EU both stood united and full of resolve, we quickly concluded that Putin had badly miscalculated in invading Ukraine, and that mounting Russian losses and military failures would soon make his regime wobble, and perhaps even collapse. As the ‘Ukrainian David’ fought back against the ‘Russian Goliath’, we applauded from the sidelines as the Ukrainian army inflicted significant losses on a Russian invasion force that seemed poorly prepared, trained and motivated. This narrative stressed plucky Ukrainian citizens rushing to enlist in the army and valiant Europeans, either in the EU front line states bordering Ukraine or farther west, opening their homes to Ukrainian refugees or collecting food and supplies and driving them east, as far as Ukraine itself. One that will unfold across well-defended and entrenched lines, even if the current high-density, high-casualty conflict fizzles out in the weeks ahead.įor most of the first 100 days of the war, we have been treated to a narrative that helped us – at least in part – come to terms with the enormity of the shock and horror of Russia’s invasion of its neighbour. Given Zelensky’s stated war aim is to liberate all Ukrainian territory, or at least return to the status quo prior to 24 February, we seem destined for a long drawn-out, low– intensity conflict. Western leaders are united in saying that it is Ukraine’s decision when to end the war and sue for peace. He suggested that with Moscow now in control of 21% of Ukraine’s territory, compared with 7% before 24 February, Kyiv has little interest in that negotiation happening now. Although he added, along with most other Western leaders in recent days, that there would eventually need to be a peace negotiation to end the fighting – rather than the outright victory of either side. The Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, warned in Washington last week that the conflict could drag on for years. One hundred days is also long enough for us to conclude that there will be no clear winner or loser anytime soon, as both Ukrainians and Russians become bogged down in a war of attrition. Yet, it is long enough to give the lie to the Kremlin’s illusions of a quick and easy victory over Ukrainians who would supposedly welcome their Russian invaders as liberators from fascist oppression with open arms. By the standards of most wars in history, 100 days is but a fleeting moment in time. Last week marked a grim milestone: 100 days since Russian forces invaded Ukraine on 24 February.
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